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Global trends in the development of aircraft manufacturing enterprises. The most powerful air force in the world Civil aviation market in the world

General characteristics world market

The growth prospects for the civil aviation market are highly dependent on rising aviation fuel prices and the average annual growth rate of the global economy and trade. At the average annual growth rate of the world economy in 2007-2025. At the level of 3.1% per year, the average annual growth in air passenger transportation over the same period will be 4.9%, and cargo transportation - 6.1%. Then, according to forecast estimates from Boeing Co., the volume of the market for new civil aircraft in 2007-2025. will be about 2.6-2.8 trillion. dollars. In the period until 2025, airlines will need approx. 28,600 new passenger and cargo aircraft. The global civil aircraft fleet will more than double from 17,330 aircraft (2005) to approximately 36,000 (2025). These will mainly be narrow-body (100-240 passengers) and wide-body (200-400 passengers) aircraft. 9,580 new airliners will replace less fuel-efficient aircraft being phased out of the companies' fleets. Most of them will be written off, but 2220 passenger airliners will be converted into cargo aircraft. In addition, airlines will receive 770 new cargo aircraft.

Aircraft belonging to this segment, such as the Boeing 787 and Boeing 777, will allow airlines to grow successfully by operating more flights to more airports that meet the needs of passengers. Aircraft of the Boeing 747 class and larger capacity will be actively used on routes connecting Asian countries with other regions, as well as on transatlantic routes. According to forecasts, there will be a strong demand in the market for high-capacity cargo aircraft due to their high efficiency, reliability, flight range and excellent load factors.

The number of aircraft with 30-60 seats in operation in the world by 2015 will slightly exceed the 2000 units available in 2005, and by 2025 it will be 2500 units. At the same time, the number of cars with 61-90 passenger seats will increase from the current 700 to 1,700 in 2015 and 3,300 in 2025. The demand for cars with a capacity of 91 to 120 passengers will expand at the fastest pace. If in 2005 there were just over 700 of them in the world's airlines, then by 2015 the fleet of such aircraft will increase to 2,500, and by 2025 - to 3,800 units. In total, by 2025, 7,950 aircraft with a capacity of 30-120 passengers will be sold worldwide for about $180 billion.

The business class aircraft market is developing rapidly, and the trend towards expanding sales in it will continue over the medium term. In 2005, 737 business aircraft were sold worldwide, 850 were delivered in 2006, and in 2007 (according to preliminary estimates), the expansion of sales approached the level of 1000 aircraft. For the period 2008-2010. the total volume of orders is estimated at 3.1-3.4 thousand aircraft. The main customers will be North American companies (61% of orders), which must renew their fleet of business class aircraft by 23%. Steady demand is expected from European countries, and it will expand as a result of rising incomes of the population of Russia and Eastern European countries. By 2011-2012 a jump (up to 50% compared to current levels) in orders from Asia, Africa and the Middle East is predicted.

In total, approximately 24,000 business jets will be produced worldwide between 2007 and 2025.

According to Boeing Co.'s forecast, by 2026 airlines will acquire:

3,700 regional aircraft (capacity less than 90 passengers);

17,650 narrow-body aircraft (90-240 passengers in a two-class configuration);

6290 wide-body aircraft (200-400 passengers in a three-class configuration);

960 aircraft of the Boeing 747 class and larger capacity (more than 400 passengers in a three-class configuration).

Geographies of world production and consumption

The global civil aircraft market is currently supplied predominantly by the products of four companies: the long-haul aircraft market is the sphere of interest of Boeing (USA) and Airbus (EU), and the vast majority of deliveries of regional aircraft are provided by Bombardier (Canada), Embraer (Brazil) and ATR ( Italy). The positions of other aircraft manufacturing enterprises in the world, including Russian ones, in this market at the moment can be described as starting ones.

In 2006, the world leaders in the civil aviation industry produced ~820 mainline and ~250 regional aircraft of all types.

The largest market in the period 2006-2025. will be the countries of the Asia-Pacific region - 36% of the total amount of 2.8 trillion. dollars, which is due to significant demand for wide-body aircraft in the region. Airlines from North America will account for 28% of purchases, and Europe – 24%. The remaining 12% comes from customers from Latin America, the Middle East and Africa.

An additional operational factor for the Asian market compared to the American and Western European markets is the presence of large passenger flows with a short length of air lines. With a large market volume, this feature may lead to the emergence of modifications or types of aircraft designed specifically for the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.

The number of producing countries is expected to expand aviation technology. Traditional players in the long-haul aircraft market, the European aviation industry and the American Boeing Corporation, will face competition from Russian (UAC), Asian manufacturers (AVIC-I, Mitsubishi HI), as well as long-haul aircraft projects created by companies that are traditional representatives of the regional and business markets. aviation (Bombardier and Embraer companies). The market for regional jet aircraft will also gain multipolar supply due to falling into the sphere of interests of the aviation industry of developing countries. In addition to the traditional players represented by Embraer and Bombardier, who currently share the market almost equally, the Russian SSJ-100 and the Chinese ARJ-21 are possible to enter the market in the near future.

New products and technologies

The main trends in the technological development of the civil aircraft industry for the period until 2025 include the following areas:

development of environmentally friendly power plants (ensuring a noise margin of 15 EPNdB, as well as a 20% reduction in emissions of harmful substances);

improvement of aircraft consumption characteristics civil aviation(on average by 20%);

improving the aerodynamics of the airframe (search for alternative layouts, implementation of the concept of a load-bearing fuselage);

implementation of the concept of a fully electric aircraft (development of engines with an integrated electric generator, electrical control systems for aerodynamic surfaces, an autonomous air conditioning system, electric mechanisms for retracting and extending the landing gear, restandardization of the on-board electrical system);

“black plane” – a constructive and technological solution to the problems of manufacturing an aircraft structure from lightweight composite materials (for example, with carbon reinforcement);

the use of nanotechnology to control the boundary layer, solve problems of increasing the strength of structures (nanomaterials), interactive diagnostics and taking readings of pressure, temperature, deformation, etc. (nanosensors);

global implementation of digital flight navigation aids using satellite navigation systems.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, an American-European duopoly emerged in the production of long-haul passenger airliners (i.e., aircraft with a capacity of 150 or more people and a maximum flight range of more than 4000–5000 km): the market was divided by Boeing and Airbus (aircraft of the same size are produced in Russia - Tu -204 and Il-96, but their production is sporadic for state needs). The same concentration occurred in the production of regional jet airliners (with a capacity of up to 100 people and a maximum flight range of less than 4000 km): by the early 2000s, there were two companies left that truly mass-produced such aircraft - the Canadian Bombardier and the Brazilian Embraer (in Russia). and in Ukraine there is, or rather, small-scale production of this class of aircraft An-148 vegetates). It was in the regional segment that countries that wanted to enter the narrow circle of jet aircraft manufacturers first made their mark. passenger aircraft: Russia with the Sukhoi Superjet project, China with the ARJ-21 aircraft and Japan with the Mitsubishi Regional Jet aircraft. But the long-haul aircraft market is much more capacious and profitable, and at the turn of the 2010s. three more players announced projects in this segment (analogues of the Boeing 737 and A319/320/321): Russia with the MC-21 project of the Irkut corporation, China with the C919 aircraft of the COMAC company and the Canadian Bombardier, whose new CSeries airliner is approaching in passenger capacity " from below" to the shortest versions of the Boeing 737 and to the European A319.

Giants Predictions

Aircraft corporations regularly publish 20-year forecasts for the passenger aircraft and transportation markets—few industries present such long-term forecasts to the public. The demand for specific models is not indicated - the breakdown is by class of aircraft. Forecasts are compiled on the basis of thorough and many years of marketing and economic research, but, of course, they cannot foresee events that once hit the market hard, such as the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 or the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. As follows from the latest Boeing forecast (published in the fall of 2014), by 2033, 36,770 mainline airliners will be produced, and their global fleet will increase from 20,910 aircraft in 2013 to 42,180 in 2033. The cost of aircraft that will produced before 2033, will amount to a mind-boggling figure of $5.2 trillion (almost a third of US GDP or about three times Russia's GDP in 2014). Of those produced over the forecast twenty years, 25,680 aircraft, i.e., almost 70%, will be, in the Boeing classification, “long-haul single-aisle aircraft” (Boeing 737, A320, MC-21 and C919), and in value terms their share will be about 48%. Regional aircraft, to which Boeing includes the Sukhoi Superjet, will produce 2,490 units, but their monetary share will be less than 2%, or about $100 billion. At the same time, the market capacity of Russia and the CIS countries, which are allocated by the American corporation to a separate regional market along with North America, Latin America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and Africa, will amount to 1,330 aircraft worth $150 billion by 2033 (or 3% of the entire world market). The former USSR will need 990 MS-21 aircraft, and 160 regional airliners.

Why did “Tu” and “Il” disappear?

IN best years The Soviet aviation industry produced up to 150 passenger jets per year. In 1991, the last year of the existence of the USSR, 37 Tu-154, six Il-86, one Il-96, two Tu-204 and 13 Yak-42 were produced, i.e. a total of 59 jet airliners, while EADS (now Airbus) produced about 170 and Boeing about 600 passenger aircraft. Throughout the 90s. in the West, processes of consolidation of the aircraft industry were underway (as a result of which in the United States, instead of three aircraft manufacturers, only Boeing remained), while all Soviet design bureaus and factories were privatized (or separated into state enterprises) separately. After the collapse of the USSR, the civil aircraft industry in Russia found itself in a state of collapse, which was caused by a combination of many factors: economic crisis, lack of implementation of new projects, lack of modern technical maintenance and financial support for aircraft sales, a large surplus fleet of aircraft that were actually free for airlines and formed due to the collapse of air travel. Beginning in 2001, the state began to look for forms of industry consolidation, which ended only in the second half of this decade with the creation of the UAC. At the same time, there was a difficult process of integration “from below”, the core of which was the two surviving companies that had funds from sales of fighters to China and India - Sukhoi and Irkut. It is not surprising that it was these two companies that put forward projects for new civil aircraft - Sukhoi Superjet, which won the competition in 2002 to create a regional aircraft, and MC-21, the government decree on the creation of which was issued in 2010. At the same time, neither Tu-204, of which only about 80 units were produced, neither the Il-96 (more than 20) never became truly mass-produced due to lack of production in the 90s - early 2000s. their engines, very weak sales support, and the IL-96 - and because of the four-engine design, less economical than that of its Western competitors. At the same time, Boeing and Airbus did not sit idle on the Russian market during the 2000s. took a dominant position on it as Soviet aircraft were written off en masse. The issue of international cooperation is no less important. In the mid-2000s, the European EADS was the closest to becoming the main partner of the Russian aviation industry: it became the owner of a 10% stake in Irkut, and the Russian VTB Bank bought a 5% stake in EADS on the market. However, no decisive steps towards partnership were taken - for various reasons, including political ones.

Airbus's 20-year forecast, published at the Le Bourget air show in June, is not radically different from Boeing's, but is more moderate. Sales by 2034 will be $4.9 trillion, the total number of new aircraft produced will be 32,585 (12% lower than Boeing), the number of single-aisle aircraft will be 22,927, and the cost will be 55%. There is, however, a notable difference: Airbus predicts that demand for ultra-large jets (such as the A380 and Boeing 747) will be 1,550 aircraft, while Boeing believes that only 620 units will find buyers. This is not surprising, since the largest and most modern aircraft of this type - the A380 - is produced by Airbus, while Boeing abandoned the development of a machine of this size in favor of a radical modernization of the Boeing 747. The forecast of the European aviation concern suggests that in 20 years the number of largest air hubs in in the world will increase to 91 from the current 47 (from Russia both now and in 20 years they will be represented only by the Moscow air hub), and the A380 concept is focused on transportation between them.

Share for Sukhoi Superjet

Bombardier of Canada's forecast, published last year, focused on aircraft of the size it produces. The company's marketers believe that by 2033, the demand for airliners from 100 to 149 seats (which includes short versions of the Boeing 737 and A319, as well as the CSeries airliner being developed by the Canadian company) will amount to 7,100 units, or $465 billion in monetary terms. Embraer, in its forecast published at the last Le Bourget, expects the delivery of 6,350 jet aircraft with a capacity of 70 to 130 seats by 2034, including 380 in Russia and the CIS countries.

Thus, all forecasts of global aircraft manufacturers provide for a significant market niche for Sukhoi Superjet. The truly serial production of this aircraft that began last year (37 units were produced) led to the fact that it took up approximately 10% of the total sales of regional jet airliners.

View from Russia

A representative of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft said that, according to company forecasts, for the period 2015–2034. The market capacity of cars with a capacity of 91–120 seats will be 2600 units, and the share of SSJ will be 14%, i.e. 364 units.

However, much more ambitious is the MS-21 project, aimed, like the Chinese C919, at the most capacious niche of the world market, where it will face much tougher competition from Boeing and Airbus, which will launch it on the market in 2016–2017. its new modifications of the Boeing 737MAX and A320neo, equipped with new highly efficient engines. The MC-21 will have the same engine as the A320neo, but it will be the first airliner with a composite (black) wing and will be equipped with a large number of the latest innovative systems, only the first flight is planned in 2016 (Sukhoi Superjet from the first test flight to the first commercial one took about four years).

Executive Director of the Aviaport agency Oleg Panteleev believes that the realistic sales plans Russian aircraft new types is determined by three factors. Firstly, the production capabilities of assembly sites - and there are no risks here. Secondly, the stability of cooperation in the supply of components - and the Russian aviation industry does not control this risk in the event of an aggravation of the international situation. Thirdly, the opportunities for promotion to the world market - this issue is also not under the control of the aviation industry, but if the existing export support policy is maintained, the situation will look controlled.

The aviation industry as an industry was formed at the beginning of the twentieth century. By 1910-12, many countries had several enterprises engaged in the production of aircraft. Interest in the industry arose during the times of world wars, in particular the Second World War, when air supremacy became one of the determining factors in a particular battle. After 1945, the industry continued its rapid growth, during this period paying more attention to civil aviation. By the end of the 80s, the aviation industry approached the modern model and then practically did not change its appearance. Currently, several countries have emerged as leaders in the aviation industry and are maintaining their positions in this sector.

Modern leaders - what are their characteristics

Currently, world leadership in the aviation industry belongs to several countries, including the USA, Russia, the EU and Brazil. These countries have the largest number of factories and factories operating in this industry. Some companies within the state can afford to produce single parts, but all of them ultimately go to larger enterprises that form the basis of the national aircraft industry.

The peculiarity of leading companies in countries that are leaders in the aviation industry is the fact that they all cooperate with the state. If we are talking about civil aviation, then this is servicing large carriers and national flights; if we are talking about military aviation, it is meeting the needs of the armed forces.

Leading companies in the civil aviation industry

The civil aircraft industry is the most expensive group, which includes only large enterprises with a narrow specialization at the national or international level.

In the civil aircraft industry today there are two large corporations leading:

Boeing (American company);
Airbus (EU united corporation);
United Aviation Corporation of Russia.

There are no enterprises of similar scale in other countries. Key Feature of these companies is the dispersion of production throughout the country or several countries (EU). This approach makes it possible to focus production at one plant for the production of one part, to bring factories closer to resources and, therefore, to minimize production costs. In addition, these companies were able to appear only thanks to the merger of giants. So, for example, the UAC includes several large enterprises “Su”, “Mig”, “Il”, “Tu”, “Yak”, focused on general production.

Others large companies, producing aviation in the world are: Lockheed-Martin, Northrop-Grumman, United Technologies, Textron (USA).

China will most likely be among the leading aircraft manufacturers in the near future, but today its production cannot yet compete with the world giants.

Military aviation

In the military sector, aviation industry leaders look different. The following brands fall into this category:

Su (made in Russia);
Mig (Russia);
Panavia Tornado (Germany);
Eurofighter Typhoon (produced by the European Union);
Boeing (United States Production).

In this sector, it is quite difficult to determine leadership between brands, since companies producing such equipment are reluctant to advertise their own sales. However, we can say with confidence that in this sector the top three remain unchanged: the USA, the European Union and Russia. Interesting developments in this industry also belong to Israel, Canada, China and some other countries, but they are produced in a much more modest volume.

The Russian aviation industry is beginning the largest reform since 2006, when the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) was created. Now we are talking about merging the UAC, the Irkut Corporation and the Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Company into a single structure that will deal with all UAC civil programs. It will become the head division of the entire corporation.

This means that the UAC considers civil aircraft manufacturing to be a key area. On the one hand, in the context of a reduction in state defense orders, the inevitability of which has already been repeatedly stated at the highest level, aircraft manufacturers have no choice. On the other hand, if Russia’s authority in the field of military aviation is not disputed by anyone, then in the civil aircraft market our country falls into the category of outsiders.

Which is quite fair, considering that last year only 30 civil aircraft were produced in Russia. For comparison, market leaders Boeing and Airbus produced 748 and 577 aircraft, respectively.

A logical question arises: what can the UAC count on in this situation?

Big Pie

According to the forecast that the United Aircraft Corporation presented at the July MAKS-2017 air show, global demand for new passenger aircraft with a capacity of more than 30 seats in the next twenty years will amount to 41,800 aircraft with a total cost of almost 6 trillion dollars.

At the same time, the greatest demand among airlines will be for narrow-body aircraft with a capacity of 120 or more seats, which will account for 63% of the total number of new aircraft. For this segment, UAC is developing the MC-21 program.

New jet aircraft with a capacity of 61-120 seats, about 4.6 thousand units will be sold by 2036 (11% of the total). This segment of the UAC is represented by the Sukhoi Superjet SSJ 100 program.

The demand for turboprop aircraft with a capacity of 30 seats or more will be about 2.3 thousand units. In this segment, UAC is developing the IL-114 program.
The total demand for wide-body aircraft will be 7,450 aircraft. For this segment, UAC, together with the China Civil Aviation Corporation SOMAS, plans to develop and produce a new generation wide-body long-range aircraft. This year, a joint venture was opened in Shanghai to manage the program.

That is, theoretically, Russian aircraft manufacturers have something to respond to market demands. In practice, everything is a little more complicated.

Three gray horses

To begin with, today only the Sukhoi Superjet is really present on the market. This is the first domestic aircraft developed after a quarter-century break. Unfortunately, the hopes associated with this project were only partially realized.

Pilots who have had the opportunity to fly the Superjet rate the aircraft very highly - no worse than the Airbus A-320 (with better efficiency) and definitely better than the Brazilian Embraer. At the same time, they acknowledge the presence of many minor malfunctions that do not, however, affect flight safety. The main complaint of professionals is related to very poor service support, which is why planes sit idle for a long time without spare parts.

Passengers have more complaints - they note poor noise and vibration insulation ("I sat in seat 7F near the engine and received a free vibration massage - very strong noise and vibration"), as well as small and low windows.

Most often, Russians compare the SSJ 100 with the UAZ Patriot car: good transport for passengers without any special complaints. It is noteworthy that Mexican pilots (the Mexican company Interjet purchased 30 SSJ 100) called the Superjet a tank.

It is clear that with such characteristics it is not easy to conquer the world market. As a result, the project remains chronically unprofitable. To achieve profitability, UAC needs to sell at least 300 aircraft, but so far it has sold three times less. The maximum annual production of SSJ 100 was reached in 2014 - 35 aircraft were produced. In 2015-2016, due to changes in the macroeconomic situation, sales plans were adjusted to 17 and 18 units, respectively.

For comparison, the Brazilian Embraer produced 225 aircraft last year: 117 business jets and 108 regional aircraft - competitors of the Superjet. It is not surprising that UAC President Yuri Slyusar recently announced a refusal to produce large volumes of SSJs: the corporation plans to produce 30-40 Superjets per year, but does not intend to “scale this project to large volumes.”

Now the main hope of the UAC is the MS-21 project. This is an aircraft whose characteristics are close to today’s segment leader – the Canadian Bombardier CS300. Like the Canadian aircraft, the Russian one is built using the most modern technologies using composite materials and with the same Pratt & Whitney engines (however, in the future it is planned to install the domestic PD-14 engine on the MC-21). Economical engines and a lightweight body allow the Bombardier CS300 and MC-21 to save up to 20% of fuel compared to Boeing and Airbus aircraft of this class. At the same time, the MC-21 is more spacious than the Bombardier CS300 - it has 176 passenger seats (the Canadian has 130), which makes its use more profitable.

Il-114 is a plane from the past: it made its first flight back in 1999 and until 2012 it was produced at the Tashkent Aviation Production Association named after. V. P. Chkalova. A total of ten Il-114s were produced with Pratt & Whitney Canada engines. Now these aircraft are part of the Uzbekistan Airways fleet.
The United Aircraft Corporation plans to resume production of the Il-114 from Russian engines TV7-117ST at the plant in Lukhovitsy, which will produce 12-18 aircraft per year. The total production volume, including civilian and special versions, may reach 100 vehicles. The updated Il-114 should make its first flight in 2018.

Aeroflot versus the Ministry of Industry and Trade

The main problem that the UAC must solve is not related to the development or production of new aircraft, but to their sales. It is already clear that Superjet will not reach the production target of 300 aircraft required for the project to pay off. MS-21, with current investment volumes, will pay for itself after the sale of 200 aircraft. The already produced Il-114 has the greatest chance of paying off - if the planned 100 aircraft are produced and sold, the project can be considered commercially successful.

Meanwhile, according to Boeing estimates, the needs of the Russian market for the foreseeable future will amount to a maximum of 40 passenger aircraft of all types per year. It is unlikely that MS-21, SSJ-100 and Il-114 will occupy this entire volume. Although the government is doing everything possible and impossible for this. In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Trade proposed abolishing benefits for the import of foreign aircraft, which “will establish customs and tariff protection of the domestic market in the interests of Russian aircraft - the SSJ 100 extended version and the MC-21-300.”

Aeroflot actively opposed this innovation, and 31 (!) foreign aircraft are scheduled to enter its fleet in 2018. The company sent a letter to First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, which notes that if the preferential treatment is suspended, additional costs for importing aircraft will exceed 25 billion rubles. As a result, Aeroflot will have to reduce its purchase plan for aircraft “both foreign and Russian-made,” which will not allow it to expand its route network, “including regional and socially significant routes.”

Photo: portal Moscow 24/Lidiya Shironina

Unreal export

If even the main Russian airline is not eager to refuse to import aircraft in order to support the Superjet and MC-21, then what can we say about foreigners. Moreover, foreign buyers of new Russian aircraft will have to take into account a bunch of additional risks.

Firstly, the Irkut Corporation, the manufacturer of the MS-21, is known in the world as a manufacturer of fighter aircraft. The airlines will greet the first civil aircraft produced by the corporation with great caution. It will be possible to talk about purchases only when Aeroflot has gained experience in operating the MC-21 (which will have to purchase new aircraft on a voluntary-compulsory basis).

Secondly, any new aircraft requires fine-tuning and modification, which on average lasts about 15 years. And not a single serious airline will order large quantities of aircraft that have not passed this period. But even then, new manufacturers such as Irkut can only rely on orders from small carriers that do not have their own aircraft maintenance and repair facilities. It is these companies that are less tied to market leaders.

Thirdly, in 2018, the Chinese C919 enters the medium-haul aircraft market, which, relying on the massive support of its government, can become a serious competitor to all global manufacturers.

Thus, at least in the next 15-20 years, the Russian aircraft industry will be a planned loss-making industry, living largely on budget subsidies. Under these conditions, there is a very high probability that the Ministry of Finance will lobby for another optimization of the aviation industry, after which only the export-attractive military segment will remain from the industry.